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Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 1/6

Grammar: Modal Deduction (Present)

Use modal verbs to show exactly how sure you are about a situation happening right now.

Reading the evidence

You often cannot know something for certain, but the evidence around you lets you make an intelligent guess. In English you do this with modal verbs of deduction: must, can't, might, may and could + the base form. Each one shows a different level of certainty — from near-proof to a faint possibility — in a single word.

This is one of the most useful B2 speaking skills. A detective, a doctor and a friend guessing why you look upset all do the same thing: they read the clues and reach a conclusion. Master these modals and you can speculate naturally instead of repeating "maybe" again and again.

  • The office is completely dark. Everyone must be at lunch.Strong evidence → a confident positive conclusion: must.
  • That can't be her car — she sold it last month.Strong evidence against → near-impossibility: can't.
  • He isn't answering. He might be in a meeting.Just one possibility among several: might.
  • Listen — she must be practising the violin again.Deduction about an action in progress now: must be + -ing.

1. The forms at a glance (quick review)

Fix the shape of each modal in your mind first. They all take the base form of the verb — no to, no -s — and continuous deductions add be + -ing.

ModalStructureExample
mustmust + base formShe must be tired.
can'tcan't + base formHe can't be serious.
might / may / couldmight / may / could + base formThey might be at home.
continuousmust / might / can't + be + V-ingHe must be joking.
Key point
  • The modal never changes for the subject and takes no -s: she must be ✓ — "she musts be" ✗.
  • Never add to after a modal: "That must be expensive." ✓ — "That must to be expensive."

2. The certainty ladder (how sure am I?)

Think of deduction as a ladder. At the top sits near-certainty; in the middle, simple possibility; at the bottom, near-impossibility. The modal you choose tells the listener exactly where on the ladder you stand.

How sure?ModalExample
~95% sure it IS truemustThe keys must be in the car.
possible (~50%)might / may / couldThe keys might be in the car.
~95% sure it is NOT truecan't (couldn't)The keys can't be in the car — I emptied it.
Golden rule
  • must and can't are the two strong ends of the ladder — use them only when the evidence is strong.
  • might, may and could sit in the uncertain middle and are almost interchangeable for present possibility.

3. must vs can't (the big trap)

These two are a pair: must is your confident "yes", and can't is your confident "no". The trap almost every learner falls into is using mustn't for a negative deduction — but for a confident "it is not true", English uses can't, never mustn't.

Wrong ✗Right ✓Why?
He mustn't be at home.He can't be at home.a confident negative deduction uses can't.
That mustn't be true.That can't be true.impossibility → can't, not mustn't.
She mustn't be the manager.She can't be the manager.the opposite of deduction "must" is "can't".
Watch out
  • mustn't does exist — but it means prohibition: "You mustn't smoke here." That is a rule, not a guess.
  • For deduction, keep the pair simple: must = I'm sure it is; can't = I'm sure it isn't.

4. must be + -ing (deduction in progress)

When you deduce about an action happening at this very moment, use the modal + be + -ing. It is the deduction cousin of the present continuous.

  • The phone's ringing and she isn't moving — she must be sleeping.A confident guess about a present action → must be + -ing.
  • They're all laughing loudly; he must be telling jokes.Evidence (laughter) → deduction about what he is doing now.
  • Her car isn't here yet, so she can't be waiting for us.Negative deduction in progress → can't be + -ing.
  • He keeps checking the door — he might be expecting someone.A possible present action → might be + -ing.
Compare
  • "He is joking." = I state a fact I know. "He must be joking." = I deduce it from evidence.
  • Only use the continuous for an action truly in progress now. For a general state, keep it simple: "She must be exhausted." (not "must be being exhausted").

5. Possibility: might, may, could (and the "can" trap)

For present possibility, might, may and could are almost interchangeable. The classic mistake is using can for a specific present guess in a statement — but can does not do this job.

Wrong ✗Right ✓Why?
She can be at work right now.She may / might / could be at work.a present guess uses might/may/could, not can.
It can be the postman.It could be the postman.one specific possibility → could/might/may.
Where "can" is fine
  • General possibility: "Winters here can be freezing." (they sometimes are — a general truth).
  • In a question: "Can this be true?" ✓ — but in a statement guess about now, use might/may/could.

6. Common mistakes (✗ / ✓)

These are the errors B2 students still make with deduction. Check your own speaking and writing against every row.

Wrong ✗Right ✓Why?
He mustn't be German.He can't be German.a negative deduction uses can't.
She can be ill today.She might be ill today.present possibility uses might/may/could, not can.
That must to be expensive.That must be expensive.modals take the base form, no "to".
He must is joking.He must be joking.after a modal use "be", never "is".
They could to be right.They could be right.no "to" after could.

7. Putting it together (Model Dialogue)

Two friends stand outside a building, guessing what is happening in a flat upstairs. Read it twice and watch the certainty shift: a confident must, a confident can't, a cautious might, and a deduction in progress with must be + -ing.

A:The lights are on upstairs. The Yilmaz family must be back from holiday.Strong evidence → confident deduction: must.
B:They can't be back yet — I saw them at the airport this morning.Evidence against → near-impossibility: can't.
A:Then who's inside? It might be their son, or maybe a house-sitter.Only a possibility → might.
B:Listen — someone must be playing the piano.Deduction about an action now → must be + -ing.
A:Then it can't be a burglar — burglars don't stop to play Chopin!Confident negative deduction → can't.
B:True. It could just be a friend watering the plants.Another possibility → could.
Test yourself
  • Find the two strong deductions with must and the two with can't. (must be back / must be playing; can't be back / can't be a burglar.)
  • Why "might be their son" and not "must be their son"? (It is only one possibility, not a confident conclusion.)
  • Rewrite "someone must be playing the piano" as an impossibility about a burglar. (A burglar can't be playing the piano.)

Exercises (Alıştırmalar)

Choose the correct answer. — 10 questions, each one is marked instantly. Questions get harder as you go.

Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 2/6

Speaking: Clues, Guesses & Conclusions

Learn the words, then use them to deduce things out loud with must, can't, might and could.

clue (n)
a small sign that helps you work something out (ipucu)
Syn: hint · Ant:
"The muddy boots are a clue — he must be a hiker."
evidence (n)
facts that show something is true (kanıt, delil)
Syn: proof · Ant:
"The evidence is clear: they must be twins."
assume (v)
to accept something as true without proof (varsaymak)
Syn: presume · Ant: verify
"Don't assume she's angry — she might just be tired."
suspect (v)
to think something is probably true (sezmek, sanmak)
Syn: suppose · Ant: know
"I suspect he could be lying about the time."
deduce (v)
to reach a conclusion using logic and clues (çıkarım yapmak)
Syn: infer · Ant: guess wildly
"From the accent, I deduce she can't be local."
obvious (adj)
easy to see or understand (apaçık, bariz)
Syn: clear · Ant: hidden
"It's obvious — the wet umbrella means it must be raining."
unlikely (adj)
probably not going to be true or happen (olası olmayan)
Syn: improbable · Ant: likely
"It's unlikely, so he can't be the winner."
doubt (n/v)
a feeling of not being certain (şüphe, kuşku)
Syn: uncertainty · Ant: certainty
"I have my doubts; she might not be telling the truth."
conclude (v)
to decide something after thinking about the facts (sonuca varmak)
Syn: determine · Ant: doubt
"From the silence, I conclude they must be asleep."
hint (n)
a small, indirect sign of something (ima, üstü kapalı ipucu)
Syn: clue · Ant: statement
"That smile is a hint — they may be planning a surprise."
reveal (v)
to make something known that was hidden (açığa çıkarmak)
Syn: expose · Ant: conceal
"His shaking hands reveal that he must be nervous."
apparent (adj)
seeming to be true from what you can see (belli, görünen)
Syn: evident · Ant: unclear
"It's apparent she could be the new manager."
reasonable (adj)
fair and sensible; based on good logic (makul, mantıklı)
Syn: sensible · Ant: absurd
"It's reasonable to think they must be lost."
jump to conclusions (phrase)
to decide too quickly without enough proof (aceleyle sonuca varmak)
Syn: assume too fast · Ant: weigh the facts
"Don't jump to conclusions — he might have a good reason."
? Whose bag is this? It must be Sam's. It can't be his — he left an hour ago. It might be Ana's.
Reading clues together: use must, can't, might and could to reach a conclusion.

Production Task (Üretim Görevi)

Write 8 sentences in which you deduce things about a person, a place or a situation from clues. Use at least 8 of the words above.

Grammar requirement — apply this unit's topic
  • Use must for a confident positive deduction (She must be a teacher) and can't for a confident negative one (He can't be asleep).
  • Use might, may or could for a real possibility (They might be lost).
  • Include at least one must be + -ing deduction about something happening now (He must be waiting for someone).
  • Write at least 2 pairs: a clue first, then your deduction. (Örn: "The lights are off. They must be out.")

Sentence starters (you can begin with these):

"The evidence is clear — it must be ..." "That can't be ..., because ..." "I'm not sure, but it might be ..." "Look — he must be ...-ing ..." "From this clue, I deduce that ..."

Değerlendirme öğretmenin tarafından yapılacak. (Your teacher will review your task.)

Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 3/6

Reading: The New Neighbour

Read the text, then answer the questions.

Before You Read (Okumadan Önce)

Good readers prepare before they start. Before you read, think about these three questions (you do not need to write the answers):

  • Have you ever guessed a stranger's job or life from small details? Were you right?
  • The text is about deducing things from clues. Which modals (must, can't, might, may, could) do you expect to see a lot?
  • The title is "The New Neighbour". Do you think the narrator really knows this person, or only imagines her life?
How to read
  • First read: read quickly, without stopping. Get the general idea; you do not need every word.
  • Second read: read the questions, then search the text. Notice each deduction — a confident "must be", an impossible "can't be", a possible "might / may / could be" — and ask how sure the writer really is.

Words to spot (from the Speaking section): clue · evidence · assume · suspect · obvious · conclude · reasonable · jump to conclusions

? must be... can't be... might be...
Reading a stranger's life from small clues — but how sure can you really be?
The New Neighbour: A Study in Small Clues

My neighbour on the fourth floor is a mystery, yet every day she leaves tiny clues about her life. I have never spoken to her; nevertheless, I feel I know a great deal about her routine.

I did not set out to study her. Our building is old and narrow, and the walls are so thin that you learn your neighbours' habits whether you want to or not. At first I noticed nothing more than a door closing softly at dawn. Then, without quite deciding to, I began to collect small observations the way other people collect stamps. A lift that stops on her floor, a light that switches off at a fixed hour, a shopping bag left briefly by the mat — each detail seemed to add a line to a portrait I was slowly sketching in my mind. I want to make one thing clear from the start: I am not spying, nor am I obsessed. I simply cannot help reading the small signs that everyone leaves behind, and, being human, I cannot resist turning those signs into a story.

She must be a doctor. Every morning she leaves at exactly six, and she always carries a hospital badge. Moreover, she often comes home in pale green scrubs, so the evidence seems obvious. She can't be a night worker, because her lights go off early and the flat is silent by ten.

The more I think about it, the stronger the case for the hospital seems. Twice I have seen her return with a paper cup of coffee and the particular grey tiredness that only long shifts produce; her shoulders drop, and she leans against the wall while she searches for her keys. On another occasion a small parcel was delivered to her door, addressed with the title 'Dr' printed clearly above her surname. That single word felt like a confession. Of course, a title on a parcel is not absolute proof — she could be a researcher, a lecturer, or a dentist rather than a hospital doctor — but taken together with the badge and the scrubs, the picture is difficult to argue with. When several separate clues all point in the same direction, a reasonable person is entitled to feel fairly confident, even without direct evidence.

Some things are less certain. She might be a runner, since a pair of muddy trainers usually sits by her door; however, they could simply belong to a visitor. I suspect she has a cat, although I have never seen it. There is dry food on her balcony, therefore an animal must live there.

There are other clues too, though they refuse to settle into a tidy conclusion. A guitar case appeared on her landing one weekend and vanished by Monday; it may be hers, or it may belong to a friend who was passing through. Sometimes I hear two sets of footsteps late in the evening, which makes me wonder whether she lives alone at all. Once, a child's drawing was taped to the inside of her window for a few days, then quietly disappeared. Each of these details opens a door to a different explanation. She could be a musician as well as a doctor; she might share the flat with a partner; she may simply be looking after a relative's child. The honest truth is that I cannot rank these possibilities, because every clue that seems to prove one theory can just as easily support another. Ambiguous evidence is the rule, not the exception, when you watch a stranger from a distance.

I could be wrong about all of this, of course. It is easy to jump to conclusions from a handful of details, whereas a careful person waits for real proof. My friend says I assume too much. 'You don't know her,' he warns, 'so you can't be sure.'

He enjoys reminding me of the times my confident guesses have collapsed. Last winter I was certain the man in the flat below was a retired soldier, purely because he polished his shoes on the step and stood very straight; it turned out he had spent forty years selling insurance and had never once worn a uniform. 'You build whole lives out of shoe polish,' my friend teased. 'One day you'll meet these people and discover they are nothing like your inventions.' I laughed, because he was right. A single habit can have a hundred causes, and the story I prefer is rarely the only one that fits. Deduction, I have learned, is a tool that must be handled with care: it can lead you to the truth, but it can lead you just as smoothly to a comfortable, convincing mistake.

What fascinates me most is how the language of guessing changes with the strength of the evidence. When a clue is overwhelming, I catch myself thinking she 'must' be exhausted or she 'can't' have slept; when the signs are thin, I soften at once into 'might', 'may' or 'could'. These small words are not mere decoration. They are honest labels for how sure I really am, and I have noticed that careless people drop the labels altogether, announcing their guesses as if they were facts. A good detective, real or imagined, does the opposite: the weaker the proof, the more cautious the wording. Perhaps that is the whole art of it — not to know everything, but to know exactly how much you do not know, and to say so plainly.

And yet I keep playing. Watching people, and guessing gently at their lives, is one of the quiet pleasures of living close to strangers. It costs nothing, it harms no one, and it makes an ordinary staircase feel faintly full of stories. Perhaps that is the real reason I do it: not because I need to know the answer, but because the not-knowing is so pleasant to fill. The mystery is more generous than any fact could be, since a fact can only be one thing, while a mystery can be everything at once.

He may have a point. Still, deducing a stranger's life from small hints is a harmless game. She may be nothing like the person I imagine; the quiet doctor might, in fact, be a musician who simply hates noise. The truth is probably ordinary — yet guessing is far more fun.

A · Multiple Choice

Choose the correct answer.

B · True / False (Doğru / Yanlış)

Are these sentences true or false, according to the text?

C · Gap Fill

Complete each sentence with ONE word from the text. Choose the right modal or linking word of deduction (must / can't / might / therefore).

1Because of the badge and scrubs, the narrator is sure she be a doctor. Doğru cevap: must
2Her lights go off early, so she be a night worker. Doğru cevap: can't
3A pair of muddy trainers sits by her door, so she be a runner. Doğru cevap: might (may / could)
4There is dry food on the balcony; , an animal must live there. Doğru cevap: therefore
5He is honest about the limits of his guessing: he admits he be wrong about all of it. Doğru cevap: could (might / may)

D · Open-Ended

Write your answer in your own words. These questions are not marked automatically.

1. What evidence makes the narrator so sure his neighbour is a doctor?

Sample Answer"He is sure because she leaves at exactly six every morning, always carries a hospital badge, and often comes home in pale green scrubs. This evidence makes it obvious that she must be a doctor."

2. Why does the narrator say he "could be wrong about all of this"?

Sample Answer"He admits that it is easy to jump to conclusions from only a handful of details. The trainers might belong to a visitor, and the quiet doctor could in fact be a musician, so his guesses may all be wrong."

3. Do you think it is fair to guess about strangers like this? Why or why not?

Sample Answer"I think it is a harmless game as long as you keep the guesses to yourself and remember they might be wrong. It only becomes unfair if you treat a person differently because of a conclusion you cannot prove."

E · Connector Hunt (Bağlaç Avı)

Find these connectors in the text — each one appears at least once: however, therefore, nevertheless, although, whereas, moreover, since, yet. (You will use these same connectors in the Writing section.) Note them down, then check.

Answers however: "a pair of muddy trainers usually sits by her door; however, they could simply belong to a visitor."
therefore: "There is dry food on her balcony, therefore an animal must live there."
nevertheless: "I have never spoken to her; nevertheless, I feel I know a great deal about her routine."
although: "I suspect she has a cat, although I have never seen it."
whereas: "It is easy to jump to conclusions..., whereas a careful person waits for real proof."
moreover: "Moreover, she often comes home in pale green scrubs."
since: "She might be a runner, since a pair of muddy trainers usually sits by her door."
yet: "My neighbour on the fourth floor is a mystery, yet every day she leaves tiny clues."
Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 4/6

Listening: What Is Zen?

Haruka asks Mark about Zen, an idea he first discovered at university.

You will hear a conversation: Haruka asks Mark to explain Zen — what it is, where it comes from, and why it is so hard to practise. You will listen TWICE. First listen: answer questions 1-5. Second listen: answer questions 6-10. (Kaydı İKİ kez dinleyeceksin: ilk dinlemede 1-5, ikinci dinlemede 6-10.)

Tip
  • Read the questions BEFORE the first listening — know what to listen for.
  • You do not need every word; catch the answer to each question.

1. Dinleme — Questions 1-5 (Choose the correct answer)

Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 5/6

Writing: A Person I've Never Met

Write and submit your paragraph; your teacher will review it.

Connectors that sound B2 (Linking Words)

At B1 you linked ideas with and, but, so, because. At B2 you sound noticeably more advanced when you use formal, precise connectors. Four of them are essential this unit — and two familiar ones, although and however, become sharper tools.

ConnectorUse it to...Example
moreoveradd a stronger, extra pointShe wears scrubs. Moreover, she carries a hospital badge.
thereforeshow a logical resultThe lights are off; therefore, they must be out.
whereascontrast two ideas directlyHe guesses freely, whereas I wait for proof.
neverthelesssay "in spite of that"I've never met her. Nevertheless, I know her routine.
althoughconcede a point inside one sentenceAlthough I have no proof, she must be a doctor.
howevercontrast between two sentencesShe might be a runner. However, the shoes could be a friend's.

See the difference — the same facts, written two ways:

Basic linking ✗Confident B2 writing ✓
I see a man on the train. He has a case. He must be a musician. He is quiet. Maybe he is shy. There is a man I see on the train, and he always carries a heavy case; therefore, he must be a musician. Although he never speaks, he could simply be shy. Moreover, the other regulars chat freely, whereas he stays silent.
Rule
  • Use at least 3 different B2 connectors from the table. Do not write sentence by sentence; connect your ideas.
  • Moreover, Therefore, However, Nevertheless usually start a sentence and take a comma: "However, I could be wrong."

Paragraph structure (Paragraph Structure)

A "deduction" paragraph has three parts. The skeleton stays the same — you change the content, not the structure:

PartWhat to writeExample
1. OpeningIntroduce the person and your main confident deductionThere is a woman I often see, and she must be a musician.
2. BodyGive the clues and your deductions. Use must and can't for confident conclusions, might / may / could for possibilities, and must be + -ing for actions now. Link with B2 connectors.She carries a violin case; therefore, she can't be a tourist. She might be a student, although I'm not sure.
3. ClosingAdmit that you could be wrong — a careful conclusionOf course, I could be completely wrong; I may be jumping to conclusions.

Task (Görev)

Write about a person you often see but have never spoken to — a neighbour, someone on your commute, or a regular at a café. Deduce things about their life from the clues, and mix the deduction modals of this unit.

WHAT TO INCLUDE

  • an opening sentence with one confident deduction (must / can't)
  • the clues you have noticed (what they carry, wear, do)
  • at least one possibility with might, may or could
  • at least one deduction about something happening now (must be + -ing)
  • a closing sentence admitting you could be wrong
  • at least 3 B2 connectors: moreover, therefore, whereas, nevertheless, although, however
  • at least 4 words from the Speaking section (clue, evidence, assume, suspect, obvious, conclude, reasonable, jump to conclusions)

EXAMPLE OPENERS

"There is a man I see every morning who must be ..." "The evidence is obvious: she can't be ..." "From the clues, I deduce that ..."

Your Paragraph (160-200 words / kelime)

0 kelime

Değerlendirme öğretmenin tarafından yapılacak. (Your teacher will evaluate your writing.)

Sample Answer (~185 words) There is a young man I see every morning on the 7:40 train, and I have built a whole story about him from small clues. He must be a musician. He always carries a heavy black case, and I can often hear faint piano music leaking from his headphones; moreover, his fingers tap rhythms on his knee. He can't be a tourist, because he takes exactly the same seat every single day.

Some details are less obvious. He might be a student, since he sometimes reads thick textbooks; however, he could equally be a teacher. I suspect he is shy, although I have no real evidence. He never speaks to anyone, whereas the other regulars chat freely.

Of course, I may be completely wrong. It is easy to jump to conclusions, therefore I try not to take my guesses too seriously. The quiet musician might, in fact, be an accountant who simply loves jazz. Nevertheless, deducing a stranger's life from tiny hints makes a boring commute far more interesting.
Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 6/6

Unit Check (Ünite Kontrolü)

Mixed questions from the whole unit, then check what you can do.

Mixed Quiz (Karışık Test)

14 questions: grammar + vocabulary + reading + listening. Each question is marked instantly.

Can-Do Check (Yapabiliyorum Listesi)

Tick what you can do now. Honest answers help your teacher.

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