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Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 1/6

Grammar: Modal Deduction (Present)

Use modal verbs to show exactly how sure you are about a situation happening right now.

Reading the evidence

You often cannot know something for certain, but the evidence around you lets you make an intelligent guess. In English you do this with modal verbs of deduction: must, can't, might, may and could + the base form. Each one shows a different level of certainty — from near-proof to a faint possibility — in a single word.

This is one of the most useful B2 speaking skills. A detective, a coach and a friend guessing why you look upset all do the same thing: they read the clues and reach a conclusion. Master these modals and you can speculate naturally instead of repeating "maybe" again and again.

  • The classroom is completely empty. Everyone must be at lunch.Strong evidence → a confident positive conclusion: must.
  • That can't be her bike — she sold it last month.Strong evidence against → near-impossibility: can't.
  • He isn't answering. He might be in class.Just one possibility among several: might.
  • Listen — she must be practising the violin again.Deduction about an action in progress now: must be + -ing.

1. The forms at a glance (quick review)

Fix the shape of each modal in your mind first. They all take the base form of the verb — no to, no -s — and continuous deductions add be + -ing.

ModalStructureExample
mustmust + base formShe must be tired.
can'tcan't + base formHe can't be serious.
might / may / couldmight / may / could + base formThey might be at home.
continuousmust / might / can't + be + V-ingHe must be joking.
Key point
  • The modal never changes for the subject and takes no -s: she must be ✓ — "she musts be" ✗.
  • Never add to after a modal: "That must be expensive." ✓ — "That must to be expensive."

2. The certainty ladder (how sure am I?)

Think of deduction as a ladder. At the top sits near-certainty; in the middle, simple possibility; at the bottom, near-impossibility. The modal you choose tells the listener exactly where on the ladder you stand.

How sure?ModalExample
~95% sure it IS truemustMy phone must be in my bag.
possible (~50%)might / may / couldMy phone might be in my bag.
~95% sure it is NOT truecan't (couldn't)My phone can't be in my bag — I've emptied it.
Golden rule
  • must and can't are the two strong ends of the ladder — use them only when the evidence is strong.
  • might, may and could sit in the uncertain middle and are almost interchangeable for present possibility.

3. must vs can't (the big trap)

These two are a pair: must is your confident "yes", and can't is your confident "no". The trap almost every learner falls into is using mustn't for a negative deduction — but for a confident "it is not true", English uses can't, never mustn't.

Wrong ✗Right ✓Why?
He mustn't be at home.He can't be at home.a confident negative deduction uses can't.
That mustn't be true.That can't be true.impossibility → can't, not mustn't.
She mustn't be the new teacher.She can't be the new teacher.the opposite of deduction "must" is "can't".
Watch out
  • mustn't does exist — but it means prohibition: "You mustn't smoke here." That is a rule, not a guess.
  • For deduction, keep the pair simple: must = I'm sure it is; can't = I'm sure it isn't.

4. must be + -ing (deduction in progress)

When you deduce about an action happening at this very moment, use the modal + be + -ing. It is the deduction cousin of the present continuous.

  • The phone's ringing and she isn't moving — she must be sleeping.A confident guess about a present action → must be + -ing.
  • They're all laughing loudly; he must be telling jokes.Evidence (laughter) → deduction about what he is doing now.
  • Her bike isn't here yet, so she can't be waiting for us.Negative deduction in progress → can't be + -ing.
  • He keeps checking the door — he might be expecting someone.A possible present action → might be + -ing.
Compare
  • "He is joking." = I state a fact I know. "He must be joking." = I deduce it from evidence.
  • Only use the continuous for an action truly in progress now. For a general state, keep it simple: "She must be exhausted." (not "must be being exhausted").

5. Possibility: might, may, could (and the "can" trap)

For present possibility, might, may and could are almost interchangeable. The classic mistake is using can for a specific present guess in a statement — but can does not do this job.

Wrong ✗Right ✓Why?
She can be at practice right now.She may / might / could be at practice.a present guess uses might/may/could, not can.
It can be the new kid.It could be the new kid.one specific possibility → could/might/may.
Where "can" is fine
  • General possibility: "Winters here can be freezing." (they sometimes are — a general truth).
  • In a question: "Can this be true?" ✓ — but in a statement guess about now, use might/may/could.

6. Common mistakes (✗ / ✓)

These are the errors B2 students still make with deduction. Check your own speaking and writing against every row.

Wrong ✗Right ✓Why?
He mustn't be German.He can't be German.a negative deduction uses can't.
She can be ill today.She might be ill today.present possibility uses might/may/could, not can.
That must to be expensive.That must be expensive.modals take the base form, no "to".
He must is joking.He must be joking.after a modal use "be", never "is".
They could to be right.They could be right.no "to" after could.

7. Putting it together (Model Dialogue)

Two friends stand outside the school music room, guessing who is inside. Read it twice and watch the certainty shift: a confident must, a confident can't, a cautious might, and a deduction in progress with must be + -ing.

A:The music-room lights are on. The band must be rehearsing for the show.Strong evidence → confident deduction: must.
B:They can't be rehearsing yet — I saw the whole band leave for lunch five minutes ago.Evidence against → near-impossibility: can't.
A:Then who's inside? It might be a new student, or maybe a teacher.Only a possibility → might.
B:Listen — someone must be playing the drums.Deduction about an action now → must be + -ing.
A:Then it can't be a teacher — teachers don't stop for a wild drum solo at lunch!Confident negative deduction → can't.
B:True. It could just be the caretaker testing the speakers.Another possibility → could.
Test yourself
  • Find the two strong deductions with must and the two with can't. (must be rehearsing / must be playing; can't be rehearsing / can't be a teacher.)
  • Why "might be a new student" and not "must be a new student"? (It is only one possibility, not a confident conclusion.)
  • Rewrite "someone must be playing the drums" as an impossibility about a teacher. (A teacher can't be playing the drums.)

Exercises (Alıştırmalar)

Choose the correct answer. — 10 questions, each one is marked instantly. Questions get harder as you go.

Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 2/6

Speaking: Clues, Guesses & Conclusions

Learn the words, then use them to deduce things out loud with must, can't, might and could.

clue (n)
a small sign that helps you work something out (ipucu)
Syn: hint · Ant:
"The muddy boots are a clue — he must be a hiker."
evidence (n)
facts that show something is true (kanıt, delil)
Syn: proof · Ant:
"The evidence is clear: they must be twins."
assume (v)
to accept something as true without proof (varsaymak)
Syn: presume · Ant: verify
"Don't assume she's angry — she might just be tired."
suspect (v)
to think something is probably true (sezmek, sanmak)
Syn: suppose · Ant: know
"I suspect he could be lying about the time."
deduce (v)
to reach a conclusion using logic and clues (çıkarım yapmak)
Syn: infer · Ant: guess wildly
"From the accent, I deduce she can't be local."
obvious (adj)
easy to see or understand (apaçık, bariz)
Syn: clear · Ant: hidden
"It's obvious — the wet umbrella means it must be raining."
unlikely (adj)
probably not going to be true or happen (olası olmayan)
Syn: improbable · Ant: likely
"It's unlikely, so he can't be the winner."
doubt (n/v)
a feeling of not being certain (şüphe, kuşku)
Syn: uncertainty · Ant: certainty
"I have my doubts; she might not be telling the truth."
conclude (v)
to decide something after thinking about the facts (sonuca varmak)
Syn: determine · Ant: doubt
"From the silence, I conclude they must be asleep."
hint (n)
a small, indirect sign of something (ima, üstü kapalı ipucu)
Syn: clue · Ant: statement
"That smile is a hint — they may be planning a surprise."
reveal (v)
to make something known that was hidden (açığa çıkarmak)
Syn: expose · Ant: conceal
"His shaking hands reveal that he must be nervous."
apparent (adj)
seeming to be true from what you can see (belli, görünen)
Syn: evident · Ant: unclear
"It's apparent she could be the new team captain."
reasonable (adj)
fair and sensible; based on good logic (makul, mantıklı)
Syn: sensible · Ant: absurd
"It's reasonable to think they must be lost."
jump to conclusions (phrase)
to decide too quickly without enough proof (aceleyle sonuca varmak)
Syn: assume too fast · Ant: weigh the facts
"Don't jump to conclusions — he might have a good reason."
? Whose bag is this? It must be Sam's. It can't be his — he left an hour ago. It might be Ana's.
Reading clues together: use must, can't, might and could to reach a conclusion.

Production Task (Üretim Görevi)

Write 8 sentences in which you deduce things about a person, a place or a situation from clues. Use at least 8 of the words above.

Grammar requirement — apply this unit's topic
  • Use must for a confident positive deduction (She must be a teacher) and can't for a confident negative one (He can't be asleep).
  • Use might, may or could for a real possibility (They might be lost).
  • Include at least one must be + -ing deduction about something happening now (He must be waiting for someone).
  • Write at least 2 pairs: a clue first, then your deduction. (Örn: "The lights are off. They must be out.")

Sentence starters (you can begin with these):

"The evidence is clear — it must be ..." "That can't be ..., because ..." "I'm not sure, but it might be ..." "Look — he must be ...-ing ..." "From this clue, I deduce that ..."

Değerlendirme öğretmenin tarafından yapılacak. (Your teacher will review your task.)

Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 3/6

Reading: The New Kid

Read the text, then answer the questions.

Before You Read (Okumadan Önce)

Good readers prepare before they start. Before you read, think about these three questions (you do not need to write the answers):

  • Have you ever guessed a new classmate's hobbies or life from small details? Were you right?
  • The text is about deducing things from clues. Which modals (must, can't, might, may, could) do you expect to see a lot?
  • The title is "The New Kid". Do you think the narrator really knows this person, or only imagines his life?
How to read
  • First read: read quickly, without stopping. Get the general idea; you do not need every word.
  • Second read: read the questions, then search the text. Notice each deduction — a confident "must be", an impossible "can't be", a possible "might / may / could be" — and ask how sure the writer really is.

Words to spot (from the Speaking section): clue · evidence · assume · suspect · obvious · conclude · reasonable · jump to conclusions

? must be... can't be... might be...
Reading a classmate's life from small clues — but how sure can you really be?
The New Kid: A Study in Small Clues

The new kid who sits by the window in my class is a mystery, yet every day he leaves tiny clues about his life. I have never actually spoken to him; nevertheless, I feel I know a great deal about him already.

Every morning unfolds in exactly the same way. He arrives a few minutes before the bell, slides into his seat by the window, and lines up three pens in a neat row before the teacher has even opened the register. Because he repeats this little ritual so precisely, he must be someone who likes order and calm; a genuinely careless person could never keep a desk that tidy. During break I sometimes notice him scrolling through his phone, half-smiling at whatever glows on the screen, and I cannot help wondering what he might be reading that pleases him so much. He never shares it, of course, so the rest of us are left to guess.

He must be a serious musician. He always carries a battered guitar case, and his fingers tap out rhythms on the desk during boring lessons. Moreover, he often hums melodies under his breath, so the evidence seems obvious. He can't be shy, because he happily answered three questions on his very first day and even cracked a joke.

There is more to my musical theory than the guitar case alone. Last Tuesday, while the rest of us were packing up in the usual noisy rush, he stayed behind and tapped out a surprisingly complicated rhythm on the edge of the desk. Moreover, the moment our music teacher mentioned a local band competition, his whole face lit up with interest. He may already play in a band of his own, although I honestly have no way of proving it. The melodies he hums so softly might even be tunes he has written himself, whereas most of us can barely remember the songs we heard yesterday. Whatever the truth is, music clearly runs through everything he does.

Some things are less certain. He might be a skater, since a pair of scuffed skate shoes usually pokes out of his bag; however, they could simply be his everyday trainers. I suspect he loves comics, although I have never seen him read one at school. His notebook is covered in sketches of superheroes, therefore drawing must be a real hobby of his.

Group projects reveal a great deal about people, too. When our history class was split into teams last week, he ended up with the loudest students in the room; nevertheless, he quietly organised the entire presentation and handed each of us a clear task. He can't be a lazy student, because lazy people never volunteer for the difficult research. On the sports field, however, he is far harder to read. He might be a fast runner, judging by those worn trainers, yet he never once joins the crowded lunchtime football games. He may simply prefer his own company, or he could be saving his energy for a club none of us knows about.

Social media only deepens the puzzle instead of solving it. Someone in my class swears she found his account, full of photographs of skateparks, late-night concerts and half-finished drawings; the profile, however, carries no real name and could easily belong to a complete stranger. If those pictures genuinely are his, he must be far more adventurous than his silent classroom face ever suggests. On the other hand, the whole account might be fake, and we could all be busily building a detailed story around entirely the wrong person. That is the danger of clues: they point somewhere, but they rarely point clearly.

The rest of the class has its own theories, naturally. During lunch, rumours spread that he must be a chess champion, or that he can't possibly be as quiet at home as he is here. One friend insists he is a gamer; another is convinced he must be older than the rest of us, since he seems so unbothered by the things that stress everyone else. The evidence for each theory is thin, yet the debate never really stops. It is obvious that a mysterious newcomer is far more entertaining than a familiar face, and we are all guilty of turning him into a puzzle to be solved.

I could be wrong about all of this, of course. It is easy to jump to conclusions from a handful of details, whereas a careful person waits for real proof. My best friend says I assume too much. 'You don't even know him,' she warns, 'so you can't be sure.'

She may have a point. Still, guessing about a classmate from small hints is a harmless game. He may be nothing like the person I imagine; the quiet guitarist might, in fact, be someone who simply hates crowds. The truth is probably ordinary — yet guessing is far more fun.

So each day I quietly add another clue to the imaginary file I keep on the boy by the window. Some of my ideas are almost certainly nonsense, whereas one or two might turn out to be surprisingly accurate — I will probably never know which. Perhaps tomorrow I will finally be brave enough to say hello and ask about the guitar, and every careful deduction will melt away in a single ordinary conversation. Until that day arrives, though, he remains my favourite mystery: a quiet classmate who, at least in my imagination, must be living the most interesting secret life in the whole school.

A · Multiple Choice

Choose the correct answer.

B · True / False (Doğru / Yanlış)

Are these sentences true or false, according to the text?

C · Gap Fill

Complete each sentence with ONE word from the text. Choose the right modal or linking word of deduction (must / can't / might / therefore).

1Because of the guitar case and the humming, the narrator is sure he be a musician. Doğru cevap: must
2He answered questions and joked on day one, so he be shy. Doğru cevap: can't
3A pair of scuffed skate shoes pokes out of his bag, so he be a skater. Doğru cevap: might (may / could)
4His notebook is full of superhero sketches; , drawing must be a real hobby. Doğru cevap: therefore
5He is honest about the limits of his guessing: he admits he be wrong about all of it. Doğru cevap: could (might / may)

D · Open-Ended

Write your answer in your own words. These questions are not marked automatically.

1. What evidence makes the narrator so sure the new kid is a musician?

Sample Answer"He is sure because the new kid always carries a battered guitar case, taps out rhythms on the desk, and often hums melodies under his breath. This evidence makes it obvious that he must be a musician."

2. Why does the narrator say he "could be wrong about all of this"?

Sample Answer"He admits that it is easy to jump to conclusions from only a handful of details. The skate shoes might just be ordinary trainers, and the quiet guitarist could in fact be someone who hates crowds, so his guesses may all be wrong."

3. Do you think it is fair to guess about a new classmate like this? Why or why not?

Sample Answer"I think it is a harmless game as long as you keep the guesses to yourself and remember they might be wrong. It only becomes unfair if you treat a classmate differently because of a conclusion you cannot prove."

E · Connector Hunt (Bağlaç Avı)

Find these connectors in the text — each one appears at least once: however, therefore, nevertheless, although, whereas, moreover, since, yet. (You will use these same connectors in the Writing section.) Note them down, then check.

Answers however: "a pair of scuffed skate shoes usually pokes out of his bag; however, they could simply be his everyday trainers."
therefore: "His notebook is covered in sketches of superheroes, therefore drawing must be a real hobby of his."
nevertheless: "I have never actually spoken to him; nevertheless, I feel I know a great deal about him already."
although: "I suspect he loves comics, although I have never seen him read one at school."
whereas: "It is easy to jump to conclusions..., whereas a careful person waits for real proof."
moreover: "Moreover, he often hums melodies under his breath."
since: "He might be a skater, since a pair of scuffed skate shoes usually pokes out of his bag."
yet: "The new kid who sits by the window is a mystery, yet every day he leaves tiny clues."
Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 4/6

Listening: What Is Zen?

Haruka asks Mark about Zen, an idea he first discovered at university.

You will hear a conversation: Haruka asks Mark to explain Zen — what it is, where it comes from, and why it is so hard to practise. You will listen TWICE. First listen: answer questions 1-5. Second listen: answer questions 6-10. (Kaydı İKİ kez dinleyeceksin: ilk dinlemede 1-5, ikinci dinlemede 6-10.)

Tip
  • Read the questions BEFORE the first listening — know what to listen for.
  • You do not need every word; catch the answer to each question.

1. Dinleme — Questions 1-5 (Choose the correct answer)

Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 5/6

Writing: A Person I've Never Met

Write and submit your paragraph; your teacher will review it.

Connectors that sound B2 (Linking Words)

At B1 you linked ideas with and, but, so, because. At B2 you sound noticeably more advanced when you use formal, precise connectors. Four of them are essential this unit — and two familiar ones, although and however, become sharper tools.

ConnectorUse it to...Example
moreoveradd a stronger, extra pointHe carries a guitar case. Moreover, he hums tunes to himself.
thereforeshow a logical resultThe court is packed; therefore, a match must be on.
whereascontrast two ideas directlyHe guesses freely, whereas I wait for proof.
neverthelesssay "in spite of that"I've never spoken to him. Nevertheless, I know his routine.
althoughconcede a point inside one sentenceAlthough I have no proof, he must be a gamer.
howevercontrast between two sentencesHe might be a skater. However, the shoes could be a friend's.

See the difference — the same facts, written two ways:

Basic linking ✗Confident B2 writing ✓
I see a boy on the bus. He has a big case. He must be a musician. He is quiet. Maybe he is shy. There is a boy I see on the bus every morning, and he always carries a bulky instrument case; therefore, he must be a musician. Although he never speaks, he could simply be shy. Moreover, the other students chat loudly, whereas he stays silent.
Rule
  • Use at least 3 different B2 connectors from the table. Do not write sentence by sentence; connect your ideas.
  • Moreover, Therefore, However, Nevertheless usually start a sentence and take a comma: "However, I could be wrong."

Paragraph structure (Paragraph Structure)

A "deduction" paragraph has three parts. The skeleton stays the same — you change the content, not the structure:

PartWhat to writeExample
1. OpeningIntroduce the person and your main confident deductionThere is a woman I often see, and she must be a musician.
2. BodyGive the clues and your deductions. Use must and can't for confident conclusions, might / may / could for possibilities, and must be + -ing for actions now. Link with B2 connectors.She carries a violin case; therefore, she can't be a tourist. She might be a student, although I'm not sure.
3. ClosingAdmit that you could be wrong — a careful conclusionOf course, I could be completely wrong; I may be jumping to conclusions.

Task (Görev)

Write about a person you often see but have never spoken to — a new classmate, someone on your bus to school, or a regular at the park or library. Deduce things about their life from the clues, and mix the deduction modals of this unit.

WHAT TO INCLUDE

  • an opening sentence with one confident deduction (must / can't)
  • the clues you have noticed (what they carry, wear, do)
  • at least one possibility with might, may or could
  • at least one deduction about something happening now (must be + -ing)
  • a closing sentence admitting you could be wrong
  • at least 3 B2 connectors: moreover, therefore, whereas, nevertheless, although, however
  • at least 4 words from the Speaking section (clue, evidence, assume, suspect, obvious, conclude, reasonable, jump to conclusions)

EXAMPLE OPENERS

"There is a boy I see every day who must be ..." "The evidence is obvious: she can't be ..." "From the clues, I deduce that ..."

Your Paragraph (160-200 words / kelime)

0 kelime

Değerlendirme öğretmenin tarafından yapılacak. (Your teacher will evaluate your writing.)

Sample Answer (~185 words) There is a boy I see every morning on the 7:40 bus to school, and I have built a whole story about him from small clues. He must be a musician. He always carries a heavy black case, and I can often hear faint guitar music leaking from his headphones; moreover, his fingers tap rhythms on his knee. He can't be new to the city, because he takes exactly the same seat every single day.

Some details are less obvious. He might be an older student, since he sometimes reads thick exam guides; however, he could equally be in my own year. I suspect he is shy, although I have no real evidence. He never speaks to anyone, whereas the other students chat freely.

Of course, I may be completely wrong. It is easy to jump to conclusions, therefore I try not to take my guesses too seriously. The quiet musician might, in fact, be a gamer who simply loves film soundtracks. Nevertheless, deducing a stranger's life from tiny hints makes a boring bus ride far more interesting.
Ünite 6 · Modal Deduction: Present · Bölüm 6/6

Unit Check (Ünite Kontrolü)

Mixed questions from the whole unit, then check what you can do.

Mixed Quiz (Karışık Test)

14 questions: grammar + vocabulary + reading + listening. Each question is marked instantly.

Can-Do Check (Yapabiliyorum Listesi)

Tick what you can do now. Honest answers help your teacher.

İşaretlemediğin madde varsa ilgili bölüme dönüp tekrar çalış — soldaki menüden her bölüme geri dönebilirsin.

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